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The Stata Journal
Volume 16 Number 1: pp. 139-158

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Estimating polling accuracy in multiparty elections using surveybias

Kai Arzheimer
Johannes Gutenberg University
Mainz, Germany
[email protected]
Jocelyn Evans
University of Leeds
Leeds, UK
[email protected]
Abstract.  Any rigorous discussion of bias in opinion surveys requires a scalar measure of survey accuracy. Martin, Traugott, and Kennedy (2005, Public Opinion Quarterly 69: 342–369) propose such a measure A for the two-party case, and Arzheimer and Evans (2014, Political Analysis 22: 31–44) demonstrate how measures Ai, B, and Bw for the more common multiparty case can be derived. We describe the commands surveybias, surveybiasi, and surveybiasseries, which enable the fast computation of these binomial and multinomial measures of bias in opinion surveys. While the examples are based on pre-election surveys, the methodology applies to any multinomial variable whose true distribution in the population is known (for example, through census data).
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